New 40k player here

Hey, Tony!

I would love to see you getting into 40K. It would provide me with that much more incentive to continue working on my own Guard force.

In terms of choosing an army, I don't know that I'm the best guy to help but I'll provide some of my own thoughts.

The Tau have been able to hold up against most forces because they have a wide range of abilities. They are very shooty - and they get some nice powered armor suits to help them cope with the heavy stuff. Plus, what they lack in defensive capability they make up for in manuverability. That is, the ability to move, shoot, then run away again leaving your opponent frustrated at the lack of a target.

If I were going to choose to do another force right now it would probably be Orks... because I have always loved the cool wackiness of them. I don't think that they're a weak army - but Seth would be able to tell you better than I.

The Guard is obviously very shooty - in more ways than one. If you are interested in lots of rolling guns then they are a good way to go. They also take a lot of painting.

In terms of painting, the Necrons can be the fastest army to put together. Tim has always been able to do pretty well with them in the past. In terms of overall choices they seem to be a little limited but I think that they're pretty cool. They are going to be getting the next update after the Guard.. or so I hear. Of course if their update is like the Guard update then you won't really have to worry about having useless models.

Personally...I HATE Necrons.

I used to play them so I know this pretty well.  I found they are very bland.  Pretty much the same army every single time.  There are no real way to personalize the army.  There are no special or heavy weapons you can plug into a standard troop choice.  Every single one of those is exactly the same. 

While the units are pretty interesting, that was the only way to personalize your army...by buying new and different units.

If you go with necrons, you might want to wait a bit longer as they will be getting a new codex in the sort of near future.  Hopefully they won't be as boring then.

Tau are pretty rocking.  Their guns and tech are nasty, but yes, if they get caught in melee, they die.

Orks are AWWWWESOOOOOOMMMEEE!  But yeah, lots of models to paint and lots of models to buy. 

Whats wrong with a standard marine force?  Its actually pretty easy to make the army your own with specific wargear, vehicles, etc.

I'm far from a good critical evaluator, but I'll babble some for you. Time and bumping into lots of walls, rather than sharp analytical thinking has taught me everything I presume.

Honestly, I think concerns about likelihood of winning or losing more often are going to have a lot to do with your play group. If you intend to hit local tournaments or play in a group that regularly does, then concerns about where an army sits on the power curve are important.  In a setting similar I see out here, it comes down far more to who your regular opponent is and how good they and their army is against your's specifically.

I agree entirely with Charlie, Orks are very fun, wacky and very personal. And apparently very competitve currently. On Necrons, I actually really miss them (sold my army, foolishly thinking I would just buy the cool new plastic models) for the very same reasons Charlie hates them. I despise the prospect and process of building my army list. Army Builder has helped imensely, but I still avoid my Orks because of the sheer number of options give me too much anxiety. Necrons used to have five types of models, three options of wargear (of which you could only take one) and I was in heaven. Same reason I do far better late game in Warmachine and chess. I cannot function with too many choices. And excell with less.

Chaos, I got bored of, partially due to their play style and partially due to the fluff being unquestioning faith in evil (read: boooooring) Their models are some really beautiful pieces, however. Space Marines actually have far more character with all their chapter stories and styles: angry wolves, redeemed or guilt-ridden, berzerk angels, stolid lines of bolters, fanatics, drop pod armies, sneaky scouts or bikers.

How do you like to play you games? Because the army you choose, unless you're rich, is going to be with you for a while. Do you want simple, small and efficient? Space Marines or Necrons might be good. Do you like to paint more than play? Orks or Imp Guard might be smart (and are more butt-ugly than other unpainted armies, if you <gasp!> don't ever paint them). Eldar suit the schemy type player who enjoys a good dose of dirty tricks mixed in with their fragile forces. Necrons do seem to me to be the "terminators" of 40K. Not the power suit kind, but the Arnold Schwarzenegger style, of "I'm here, in your face. It 's your job to try to figure out how to stop me." The rules of 5.0 might very well have figured this out for players who did not. I don't know.

Tau are dead sexy models, but suffer a lot in close combat, leading to a game that often ends, assuming you've won, with your opponent feeling you "played wrong" because you would not face them in CC. I would hate playing as Tau, as I love smashing into things and fear making my opponent feel like I jipped them...in a minis game. Necrons can do this too, but they don't have to as much as Tau. If you love deck building and finding the optimal list of unstoppable, break your opponent nine ways to Sunday, regardless of the dice you will be rolling during the game, I believe Tyranids are currently the one to beat (and to a lesser degree Eldar & Orks). Not really my style, but definitely the thinking, magic-player's style. And painting Bugs is 100% open to going stupid fast and looking fine or taking forever and also looking fine. Beacause our definition of what makes a plant/bug look good is extremely flexible, whereas an Imperial Guardsman is the exact opposite and very universally defined.

There are other special forces like Witch Hunters and Demon Hunters, but I think they are not the best for new players, unless you don't mind a less forgiving ride to sucess, and a stronger likelihood that every new edition might just invalidate your entire army. :P

Another question you might ask yourself is, "Where do I want to have my most fun?" Do you want to have it at the painting table (like Jay :D ) then a beautiful bunch of Guardsmen is a good choice. Do you have a lot of fun before the battle, building your lists of destruction, like the Bugs and somewhat Eldar? I think Marines are one of the best for just throwing down, ignoring much army building and snazzy paintjobs, and just rolling with the game, rising to whatever new surprise your opponent or the dice throw at you.

Jeesus! tl,dr or what?!

No, I read it Seth...good read.

To add a little bit, I have to say I love Daemonhunters.  My current army has 3 full units of stormtroopers (2 plasmagun each), which have a definite Imperial guard feel (although not NEARLY  as many models to paint), and also a squad of standard marines.  So the daemonhunters sort of give the best of both worlds if you make the army right.

Yes, they are a little less forgiving than other armies, but unless you're playing a full Grey Knight force, they are only slightly more than a beginners army.  So sort of intermediate, but they tend to be alot fo fun to play.  You actually have to think a bit during a game to come out on top.

I actually was #1 on top of a pyramid league for a few weeks with my daemonhunters.

If you wanted to start Imperial guard, you'll definitely want to wait a month (codex comes out in may I think?).  I've always enjoyed guard simply because if you're clever at list building, you could pretty easily come up with a guard army focusing more on elite infantry rather than numbers (thus being easier to paint).

And who can argue with a leman russ or two on the board?

I can't wait for the new Guard Codes... or the new minis. It also looks like everything that I currently have will continue to be legal... but that's because I don't do crazy-custom foces (always a bad idea in terms of army longevity).

Thanks for all your input, guys.  I'm not looking to play in major tournaments, I just want to have fun.  That doesn't mean I won't spend hours building an army as I am very much into "deck building."  I'm thinking the Assault on Black Reach set may be a good start.  My buddy is looking to play SM and I could try out Orks.  This would give him a rule book (as I already have one 5E one) give us both enough starting models to be dangerous.  Who knows, I may just like SM's.  Time will tell.  I borrowed some codecies from another buddy to read through and hopefully that, and your comments, will help me decide.

Does GG have AoBR in stock?

We usually do have that in stock. If you know when you're going to be in just call ahead and have it set aside.. just in case. Oh, and then let me know you're coming so I can be sure to be there.

<Thanks for all your input, guys.  I'm not looking to play in major tournaments, I just want to have fun.  That doesn't mean I won't spend hours building an army as I am very much into "deck building." >
 

Aha!  A TRUE gamer!  Ok, so you want to have fun.  Well ALL the armies can be fun (except for necrons...at least for me).

So the real question is what is your play style like?  Do you like the 'deck building' aspect?  Or would you rather just plop some guys on the field and go to town?  Are you strategic?  Or do you just want to point the army in 'that' direction and start smashing?  Do you like tanks more?  Infantry more?  A mix?  Etc etc...

What other games do you like playing?  What's your favorite magic color?  That could give us a good idea of what to play.